United States Representative, Congressional District 1
Congressional District 1 (119th Congress), Minnesota
My vote power
Normal
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Normal · 59 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 715,713 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(5,739,445 ÷ 715,713) ÷ ln(50,000) = 59.62, measured against a statewide vote in MN (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Normal · rated somewhat competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race somewhat close. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Republican" (d=5) + Sabato "Likely Republican" (d=4) → mean 4.5 → "somewhat competitive" after consensus guardrails → grade normal (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade normal, not competitive grades low)
Normal representation + normal decisiveness → My vote power: Normal.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Republican · Incumbent · declared
U.S. Representative for Minnesota's 1st District. A fourth-generation farmer, he previously served in the Minnesota House of Representatives and as USDA Rural Development state director.
Records: Government Spending Reduction 2 for, 1 against, Labor Rights 2 against, AI Regulation 1 for,
Democratic-Farmer-Labor · declared
A public-school teacher and union leader from southern Minnesota. His campaign focuses on working families, education, and small towns.