United States Representative
Congressional District 9 (119th Congress), Ohio
My vote power
High
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Above average · 62 out of 100
This district is a good deal smaller than its state, so each vote here carries more weight than a vote in a statewide race. About 781,702 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(11,810,293 ÷ 781,702) ÷ ln(50,000) = 62.55, measured against a statewide vote in OH (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: High · rated very competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race very close — a small number of votes could decide the winner. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Tilt Republican" (d=2) + Sabato "Toss-up" (d=0) → mean 1 → "very competitive" → grade high (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
Above average representation + high decisiveness → My vote power: High.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Republican · declared
Derek Merrin is a former member of the Ohio House and a former mayor of Waterville.
Records: Personal Income Tax Reduction 1 for
Democratic · Incumbent · declared
Marcy Kaptur has represented Toledo in Congress since 1983 and is the longest-serving woman in U.S. House history. A senior member of the Appropriations Committee, she is a leading voice on manufacturing, trade, and Great Lakes issues.
Records: Environment and Public Health 62 for, 7 against, Civil Rights 23 for, 1 against, Immigration 9 for, 15 against,
Sources: ballotpedia.org · cbsnews.com