State Representative, District 2
July 21, 2026 · State House District 2; Arizona · State house district · primary
How do we calculate vote impact?
Vote impact = representation (how much weight one vote carries here, the smaller the district's population, the higher the representation) + decisiveness (how likely this race is to be close, based on past results and number of candidates).
Representation: Average · 37 out of 100
This district is mid-sized for its type, so each vote carries average weight. About 253,802 people live here.
score = 100 × ln(largest population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(largest ÷ smallest), rounded to 2 decimals = 100 × ln(275,769 ÷ 253,802) ÷ ln(275,769 ÷ 221,081) = 37.55, comparing state house districts in AZ (grades: 66+ high, 33+ average, otherwise low)
Decisiveness: Unknown
No past results for this contest yet.
Average representation + unknown decisiveness → Average vote impact.
Some data is missing, so this rating is based on partial information and capped at "High".
This office is responsible for:
- Voting on state laws and the state budget
- Representing their district in the statehouse
- Serving on committees that shape bills before final votes
- Helping district residents deal with state agencies
Affected Areas: Environment and Public Health, Reduce Wealth Gap, Anti-Corruption, Government Efficiency, Healthcare Affordability, Government Spending Reduction, Public Safety and Crime Control, Housing Affordability, Social Programs and Welfare, Public Education Quality, Gun Control, Women's Reproductive Rights, Election Integrity, Personal Income Tax Reduction, Data Privacy, Civil Rights, Corporate Accountability, Public Infrastructure
Candidates
Justin Wilmeth
Republican · declared
Justin Wilmeth is the Republican incumbent in Arizona House District 2, first elected in 2022. An Arizona State University graduate who has worked in communications andpolicy advising, he touts a bipartisan record of bills signed into law. He is running in the July 2026 primary for re-election.
Records: Government Efficiency 1 for
Kenneth Laird
Republican · declared
Kenneth Laird is a Republican candidate in the July 2026 primary for Arizona House of Representatives District 2.
Paul Carver
Republican · declared
Paul Carver is a Republican candidate in the July 2026 primary for Arizona House of Representatives District 2.
Stephanie Simacek
Democratic · declared
Stephanie Simacek is the Democratic incumbent in Arizona House District 2, first elected in 2024 and seated in January 2025. A former first-grade teacher, she also serves on the Deer Valley Unified School District governing board. She is running in the July 2026 primary for re-election.
Election sources
Source: ballotpedia.org