United States Representative, Congressional District 2
Congressional District 2 (119th Congress), Montana
My vote power
Below average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Average · 53 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 552,014 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(1,116,875 ÷ 552,014) ÷ ln(50,000) = 53.26, measured against a statewide vote in MT (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Low · rated not competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race not competitive. Rating from Inside Elections.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Republican" (d=5) → mean 5 → "not competitive" → grade low (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
Average representation + low decisiveness → My vote power: Below average.
The current race rating comes from a single analyst source, so it is less certain.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Democratic · declared
Brian J. Miller is a Democratic candidate for U.S. Representative in Montana 2nd Congressional District.
Independent · declared
Michael D. Eisenhauer is an Independent candidate for U.S. Representative in Montana 2nd Congressional District.
Libertarian · declared
Patrick McCracken is a Libertarian candidate for U.S. Representative in Montana 2nd Congressional District.
Republican · Incumbent · declared
Troy Downing is the Republican incumbent U.S. Representative for Montana's 2nd Congressional District.
Records: Environment and Public Health 28 against, Immigration 10 against, Civil Rights 4 against,