State Senator, District 4
November 3, 2026 · State Senate District 4; California · State senate district · general
How do we calculate vote impact?
Vote impact = representation (how much weight one vote carries here, the smaller the district's population, the higher the representation) + decisiveness (how likely this race is to be close, based on past results and number of candidates).
Representation: Low · 1 out of 100
This district is large for its type, so each vote is a smaller slice of the outcome. About 1,043,919 people live here.
score = 100 × ln(largest population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(largest ÷ smallest), rounded to 2 decimals = 100 × ln(1,046,386 ÷ 1,043,919) ÷ ln(1,046,386 ÷ 916,831) = 1.79, comparing state senate districts in CA (grades: 66+ high, 33+ average, otherwise low)
Decisiveness: Unknown
No past results for this contest yet.
Low representation + unknown decisiveness → Below average vote impact.
Some data is missing, so this rating is based on partial information and capped at "High".
State Senator is responsible for:
- Voting on state laws and the state budget
- Representing their district in the state senate
- Confirming certain governor appointments in many states
- Helping district residents deal with state agencies
Affected Areas: Environment and Public Health, Reduce Wealth Gap, Anti-Corruption, Government Efficiency, Healthcare Affordability, Government Spending Reduction, Public Safety and Crime Control, Housing Affordability, Social Programs and Welfare, Public Education Quality, Gun Control, Women's Reproductive Rights, Election Integrity, Personal Income Tax Reduction, Data Privacy, Civil Rights, Corporate Accountability, Public Infrastructure
Candidates
Alexandra Duarte
Republican · declared
Alexandra Duarte is the 2026 Republican nominee for California State Senate District 4, her first run for office. A Modesto almond and walnut farmer and wife of former U.S. Representative John Duarte, she campaigns on water policy, agriculture, and reducing regulation, branding herself a conservative focused on rural representation. She advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in second place, eliminating incumbent Republican Marie Alvarado-Gil, and faces Democrat Jaron Brandon in November.
Jaron Brandon
Democratic · declared
Jaron Brandon is the 2026 Democratic nominee for California State Senate District 4, a Republican-leaning Central Sierra district. Elected to the Tuolumne County Board of Supervisors in 2020 at age 26 as the youngest county supervisor in California, he has focused on housing, broadband, and behavioral health. A Sonora native and UC Merced government graduate, he led the June 2026 top-two primary with 41.3%, eliminating Republican incumbent Marie Alvarado-Gil, and faces Republican Alexandra Duarte in November.
Records: Housing Affordability 1 for, Public Infrastructure 1 for
Election sources
Source: dp.electionresults.sos.ca.gov
Source: calmatters.org