United States Senator
Iowa
My vote power
Normal
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Normal · 50 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 3,210,507 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(3,210,507 ÷ 3,210,507) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50, measured against a statewide vote in IA (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Normal · rated competitive as of August 19, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race somewhat close. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Tilt Republican" (d=2) + Sabato "Leans Republican" (d=3) → mean 2.5 → "competitive" → grade normal (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade normal, not competitive grades low)
Normal representation + normal decisiveness → My vote power: Normal.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Confirming federal judges and Supreme Court justices
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Republican · declared
Ashley Hinson has represented Iowa's 2nd congressional district in the U.S. House since 2023, after representing the state's 1st district from 2021 to 2023. She previously served in the Iowa House of Representatives and worked as a television journalist.
Records: Environment and Public Health 5 for, 72 against, Immigration 32 against, Civil Rights 7 for, 13 against,
Democratic · declared
Josh Turek represents Iowa House District 20. He is a nonprofit director and a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball.
Records: Civil Rights 1 for, Corporate Accountability 1 for, Environment and Public Health 1 for,
Libertarian · declared
Thomas Laehn serves as Greene County Attorney in Iowa. He was first elected to that office in 2018 and reelected in 2022.
Records: Government Efficiency 2 for, Government Spending Reduction 1 against
Sources: sos.iowa.gov2