United States Representative, District 31
November 3, 2026 · Congressional District 31 (119th Congress), Texas · U.S. House district · general
How do we calculate vote impact?
Vote impact = representation (how much weight one vote carries here, the smaller the district's population, the higher the representation) + decisiveness (how likely this race is to be close, based on past results and number of candidates).
Representation: Low · 30 out of 100
This district is large for its type, so each vote is a smaller slice of the outcome. About 843,922 people live here.
score = 100 × ln(largest population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(largest ÷ smallest), rounded to 2 decimals = 100 × ln(1,021,191 ÷ 843,922) ÷ ln(1,021,191 ÷ 546,488) = 30.5, comparing all US House districts nationwide (grades: 66+ high, 33+ average, otherwise low)
Decisiveness: Unknown
No past results for this contest yet.
Low representation + unknown decisiveness → Below average vote impact.
Some data is missing, so this rating is based on partial information and capped at "High".
United States Representative is responsible for:
- Voting on federal laws, taxes, and the federal budget
- Representing their district's interests in Congress
- Starting tax and spending bills, which must begin in the House
- Helping district residents deal with federal agencies
Affected Areas: Environment and Public Health, Reduce Wealth Gap, Anti-Corruption, Government Efficiency, Healthcare Affordability, Immigration, Government Spending Reduction, Social Programs and Welfare, Gun Control, Women's Reproductive Rights, National Defense, Personal Income Tax Reduction, Foreign Trade, Data Privacy, Civil Rights, Corporate Accountability, Public Infrastructure, Peaceful Foreign Policy
Candidates
John Carter
Republican · declared
John R. Carter is the Republican incumbent U.S. Representative for Texas's 31st Congressional District, first elected in 2002. A former Williamson County district judge, he serves on the House Appropriations Committee. He is seeking re-election in 2026.
Records: National Defense 1 for, Social Programs and Welfare 1 for
Justin Early
Democratic · declared
Justin Early is the Democratic nominee for Texas's 31st Congressional District in 2026. A U.S. Army veteran who served as a paratrooper and later at the Defense Intelligence Agency, he works as a cybersecurity architect at Dell Technologies. He has served as a Democratic precinct chair and was a 2008 presidential delegate. He won the March 2026 Democratic primary.
Election sources
Source: en.wikipedia.org
Source: ballotpedia.org