United States Representative, District 31
Congressional District 31 (119th Congress), Texas
My vote power
Average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: High · 66 out of 100
This district is a small slice of its state, so each vote here carries much more weight than a vote in a statewide race. About 843,922 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(30,188,424 ÷ 843,922) ÷ ln(50,000) = 66.53, measured against a statewide vote in TX (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Low · rated not competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race not competitive. Rating from Inside Elections.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Republican" (d=5) → mean 5 → "not competitive" → grade low (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
High representation + low decisiveness → My vote power: Average.
The current race rating comes from a single analyst source, so it is less certain.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Green · declared
Greg Stoker is the Green Party candidate for U.S. House in Texas's 31st Congressional District in the 2026 general election.
Records: Peaceful Foreign Policy 1 for
Republican · declared
John R. Carter has represented central Texas in Congress since 2003 and serves on the House Appropriations Committee. He is a former Williamson County district judge.
Records: Environment and Public Health 5 for, 69 against, Immigration 31 against, Government Spending Reduction 6 for, 17 against,
Democratic · declared
Justin Early is a U.S. Army veteran who served as a paratrooper and later at the Defense Intelligence Agency, and now works as a cybersecurity architect at Dell Technologies. He has served as a Democratic precinct chair.
Sources: en.wikipedia.org · ballotpedia.org