United States Senator
November 3, 2026 · Arkansas · Statewide · general
How do we calculate vote impact?
Vote impact = representation (how much weight one vote carries here, the smaller the district's population, the higher the representation) + decisiveness (how likely this race is to be close, based on past results and number of candidates).
Representation: Average · 60 out of 100
This district is mid-sized for its type, so each vote carries average weight. About 3,049,391 people live here.
score = 100 × ln(largest population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(largest ÷ smallest), rounded to 2 decimals = 100 × ln(39,287,377 ÷ 3,049,391) ÷ ln(39,287,377 ÷ 582,397) = 60.69, comparing all statewide districts nationwide (grades: 66+ high, 33+ average, otherwise low)
Decisiveness: Unknown
No past results for this contest yet.
Average representation + unknown decisiveness → Average vote impact.
Some data is missing, so this rating is based on partial information and capped at "High".
United States Senator is responsible for:
- Voting on federal laws, taxes, and the federal budget
- Approving or rejecting the president's nominees for judges and top officials
- Voting on whether to approve treaties with other countries
- Helping people in the state deal with federal agencies
Affected Areas: Environment and Public Health, Reduce Wealth Gap, Anti-Corruption, Government Efficiency, Healthcare Affordability, Immigration, Government Spending Reduction, Social Programs and Welfare, Gun Control, Women's Reproductive Rights, National Defense, Personal Income Tax Reduction, Foreign Trade, Data Privacy, Civil Rights, Corporate Accountability, Public Infrastructure, Peaceful Foreign Policy
Candidates
Hallie Shoffner
Democratic · declared
Hallie Shoffner is a sixth-generation Arkansas farmer and businesswoman, the 2026 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate challenging incumbent Tom Cotton. A Vanderbilt University graduate with a degree from the Clinton School of Public Service, she ran an economic-populist campaign focused on affordability, healthcare, and food security after closing her family farm amid economic hardship in 2025. She won the March 2026 Democratic Senate primary with about 78%.
Tom Cotton
Republican · Incumbent · declared
Tom Cotton is the junior United States Senator from Arkansas, in office since 2015 and seeking a third term in 2026. A Republican, Army veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, and Harvard Law graduate, he serves on the Armed Services and Intelligence committees (chairing Intelligence) and is a prominent conservative voice on defense and immigration. He won the March 2026 GOP primary with about 82%.
Records: Immigration 1 against, Peaceful Foreign Policy 1 against
Election sources
Source: en.wikipedia.org
Source: senate.gov