United States Senator
Arkansas
My vote power
Below average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Average · 50 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 3,049,391 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(3,049,391 ÷ 3,049,391) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50, measured against a statewide vote in AR (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Low · rated not competitive as of August 19, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race not competitive. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Republican" (d=5) + Sabato "Safe Republican" (d=5) → mean 5 → "not competitive" → grade low (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
Average representation + low decisiveness → My vote power: Below average.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Confirming federal judges and Supreme Court justices
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Democratic · declared
Hallie Shoffner is a sixth-generation Arkansas farmer and businesswoman who closed her family farm amid economic hardship in 2025. A Vanderbilt graduate with a degree from the Clinton School of Public Service, she campaigns on affordability and food security.
Libertarian · declared
Jeff Wadlin is the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate in Arkansas in 2026, a business consultant, and a 2018 Justice of the Peace candidate.
Republican · Incumbent · declared
Tom Cotton has served in the U.S. Senate since 2015, chairs the Intelligence Committee, and sits on Armed Services. An Army veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan and a Harvard Law graduate, he is a prominent conservative voice on defense and immigration.
Records: Environment and Public Health 30 against, Corporate Accountability 6 against, Government Spending Reduction 1 for, 5 against,
Sources: en.wikipedia.org · senate.gov