State Representative - District No. 15
State House District 15; Arizona
My vote power
Normal
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election · 2 seats
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Normal · 65 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 266,581 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(7,378,838 ÷ 266,581) ÷ ln(50,000) = 65.35, measured against a statewide vote in AZ (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Unknown
No analyst ratings or past results for this contest yet.
Normal representation → My vote power: Normal.
Some data is missing, so this rating is based on partial information.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in state taxes
- Voting on how much money your local public schools get
- Voting on which roads and highways get built or repaired
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Republican · Incumbent · declared
Michael Way is a Republican Arizona state representative for District 15. His 2026 Clean Elections biography identifies him as a business executive with a construction-management degree from Arizona State University, an MBA and law degree from the University of Wyoming, and graduate study in educational assessment at Oxford.
Records: Civil Rights 6 for, 10 against, Election Integrity 10 for, 1 against, Public Safety and Crime Control 8 for, 3 against,
Republican · Incumbent · declared
Neal Carter is a Republican Arizona state representative for District 15 and serves as speaker pro tempore. His official and campaign biographies identify him as an attorney and estate-planning practitioner with literature degrees from UCLA and a law degree from New York University.
Records: Civil Rights 3 for, 10 against, Public Safety and Crime Control 10 for, 3 against, Election Integrity 9 for, 1 against,
Sources: apps.arizona.vote · azsos.gov