Governor
Arkansas
My vote power
Below average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Normal · 50 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 3,049,391 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(3,049,391 ÷ 3,049,391) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50, measured against a statewide vote in AR (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Low · rated not competitive as of August 12, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race not competitive. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Republican" (d=5) + Sabato "Safe Republican" (d=5) → mean 5 → "not competitive" → grade low (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade normal, not competitive grades low)
Normal representation + low decisiveness → My vote power: Below average.
About this office
- Signing or vetoing bills that become state law
- Proposing the state budget for schools, roads, and health care
- Picking who leads state agencies
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Libertarian · declared
Colt Shelby is a Cecil, Arkansas native who worked about 16 years in the oil-drilling industry. He became a leading opponent of a proposed 3,000-bed Franklin County prison and sued the state over the project.
Records: Civil Rights 1 for
Democratic · declared
Fredrick J. Love has served in the Arkansas Senate since 2022, representing parts of Little Rock and Pulaski County, after 12 years in the Arkansas House from 2011 to 2023.
Records: Civil Rights 2 for, Environment and Public Health 2 for, Public Safety and Crime Control 2 for,
Republican · Incumbent · declared
Sarah Huckabee Sanders has been governor of Arkansas since January 2023. The daughter of former Governor Mike Huckabee, she served as White House press secretary from 2017 to 2019.
Records: Public Safety and Crime Control 4 for, Government Efficiency 1 for, Government Spending Reduction 1 against,
Sources: en.wikipedia.org · ballotpedia.org