Tennessee Senate District 15
August 6, 2026 · State Senate District 15; Tennessee · State senate district · primary
How do we calculate vote impact?
Vote impact = representation (how much weight one vote carries here, the smaller the district's population, the higher the representation) + decisiveness (how likely this race is to be close, based on past results and number of candidates).
Representation: Average · 47 out of 100
This district is mid-sized for its type, so each vote carries average weight. About 213,126 people live here.
score = 100 × ln(largest population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(largest ÷ smallest), rounded to 2 decimals = 100 × ln(228,447 ÷ 213,126) ÷ ln(228,447 ÷ 197,150) = 47.12, comparing state senate districts in TN (grades: 66+ high, 33+ average, otherwise low)
Decisiveness: None · only 1 candidate
One candidate is running unopposed, so votes can't change the outcome.
Average representation + an uncontested race → Below average vote impact.
State Senator is responsible for:
- Voting on state laws and the state budget
- Representing their district in the state senate
- Confirming certain governor appointments in many states
- Helping district residents deal with state agencies
Affected Areas: Environment and Public Health, Reduce Wealth Gap, Anti-Corruption, Government Efficiency, Healthcare Affordability, Government Spending Reduction, Public Safety and Crime Control, Housing Affordability, Social Programs and Welfare, Public Education Quality, Gun Control, Women's Reproductive Rights, Election Integrity, Personal Income Tax Reduction, Data Privacy, Civil Rights, Corporate Accountability, Public Infrastructure
Candidates
Paul Bailey
Republican · Incumbent · declared
Paul Bailey is the Republican Tennessee state senator for District 15 and chair of the Senate Commerce and Labor Committee. A former state representative and White County Commission chairman, he is a trucking-company owner and farmer whose legislative work spans labor and commerce, public safety, transportation, healthcare, education, firearms, consumer protection, and Upper Cumberland development.
Records: Civil Rights 1 for, Corporate Accountability 5 for, Data Privacy 2 for, Environment and Public Health 2 against, Government Efficiency 5 for, Gun Control 1 for, 3 against, Healthcare Affordability 6 for, Housing Affordability 2 for, Personal Income Tax Reduction 1 for, Public Education Quality 5 for, Public Infrastructure 4 for, Public Safety and Crime Control 13 for, 1 against, Reduce Wealth Gap 1 for, Social Programs and Welfare 5 for
Election sources
Source: putnamcountytn.gov
Source: putnamcountytn.gov
Source: putnamcountytn.gov