United States Representative, Congressional District 15
Congressional District 15 (119th Congress), California
My vote power
Normal
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: High · 68 out of 100
This district is a small slice of its state, so each vote here carries much more weight than a vote in a statewide race. About 738,509 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(39,287,377 ÷ 738,509) ÷ ln(50,000) = 68.36, measured against a statewide vote in CA (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Low · rated not competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race not competitive. Rating from Inside Elections.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Democrat" (d=5) → mean 5 → "not competitive" → grade low (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade normal, not competitive grades low)
High representation + low decisiveness → My vote power: Normal.
The current race rating comes from a single analyst source, so it is less certain.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Republican · declared
Charles Hoelter is a Republican candidate for California's 15th Congressional District. San Mateo County listed his ballot designation as Retired Training Supervisor for the 2026 primary election.
Democratic · Incumbent · declared
Kevin Mullin represents California's 15th Congressional District. He previously served on the South San Francisco City Council, as Mayor of South San Francisco, and in the California State Assembly.
Records: Environment and Public Health 61 for, 2 against, Corporate Accountability 10 for, Civil Rights 7 for,