United States Representative, Congressional District 4
Congressional District 4 (119th Congress), Kentucky
My vote power
Average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Above average · 58 out of 100
This district is a good deal smaller than its state, so each vote here carries more weight than a vote in a statewide race. About 762,319 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(4,534,824 ÷ 762,319) ÷ ln(50,000) = 58.24, measured against a statewide vote in KY (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Low · rated not competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race not competitive. Rating from Inside Elections.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Republican" (d=5) → mean 5 → "not competitive" → grade low (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
Above average representation + low decisiveness → My vote power: Average.
The current race rating comes from a single analyst source, so it is less certain.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Republican · declared
Fifth-generation Kentucky farmer and retired Navy SEAL officer with a three-decade military career. He emphasizes border security, military readiness, and support for agriculture.
Libertarian · declared
Grassroots Libertarian advocate emphasizing liberty, anti-war policy, and fiscal restraint. His campaign also focuses on limiting donor influence in politics.
Democratic · declared
Northern Kentucky businesswoman with a 27-year career in food manufacturing and supply chain. She emphasizes teamwork, pragmatic problem-solving, and community-focused leadership.