United States Representative, Congressional District 21
Congressional District 21 (119th Congress), California
My vote power
High
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: High · 68 out of 100
This district is a small slice of its state, so each vote here carries much more weight than a vote in a statewide race. About 758,000 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(39,287,377 ÷ 758,000) ÷ ln(50,000) = 68.24, measured against a statewide vote in CA (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Average · rated somewhat competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race somewhat close. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Democrat" (d=5) + Sabato "Likely Democratic" (d=4) → mean 4.5 → "somewhat competitive" after consensus guardrails → grade average (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
High representation + average decisiveness → My vote power: High.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Democratic · Incumbent · declared
Jim Costa represents California's 21st Congressional District. He previously served in the California State Assembly and State Senate.
Records: Environment and Public Health 52 for, 30 against, Civil Rights 23 for, Corporate Accountability 16 for, 3 against,
Republican · declared
Kyle Kirkland owns Club One Casino and leads the Kirkland Foundation. He has served as president of the California Gaming Association.
Records: Corporate Accountability 1 against