Tennessee Senate District 15
State Senate District 15; Tennessee
My vote power
Below average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
The Tennessee Senate District 15 general election in State Senate District 15; Tennessee is on November 3, 2026. One candidate is on the ballot, Paul Bailey (Republican), so the race is uncontested. Paul Bailey is the incumbent. One vote here carries below average weight compared with other races.
How do we calculate my vote power?
What determines the vote power rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus whether more candidates are running than there are seats.
Representation: High · 66 out of 100
This district is a small slice of its state, so each vote here carries much more weight than a vote in a statewide race. About 213,126 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(7,066,383 ÷ 213,126) ÷ ln(50,000) = 66.18, measured against a statewide vote in TN (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: None · only 1 candidate
One candidate is running unopposed, so votes can't change the outcome.
High representation + an uncontested race → My vote power: Below average.
What does this office do?
- Voting on how much you pay in state taxes
- Voting on how much money your local public schools get
- Voting on which roads and highways get built or repaired
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Who is running?
Republican · Incumbent
Paul Bailey is a Christian trucking businessman and small farmer from Sparta, born in 1968, who attended Tennessee Tech University. He chairs the Senate Commerce and Labor Committee and serves on Fiscal Review.
Records: Public Safety and Crime Control 9 for, 1 against, Civil Rights 2 for, 4 against, Corporate Accountability 5 for, 1 against,
Sources: sos.tn.gov · sos-prod.tnsosgovfiles.com
Last updated September 24, 2026.