United States Representative, Congressional District 1
Congressional District 1 (119th Congress), Hawaii
My vote power
Below average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Average · 53 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 719,645 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(1,445,235 ÷ 719,645) ÷ ln(50,000) = 53.22, measured against a statewide vote in HI (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Low · rated not competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race not competitive. Rating from Inside Elections.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Democrat" (d=5) → mean 5 → "not competitive" → grade low (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
Average representation + low decisiveness → My vote power: Below average.
The current race rating comes from a single analyst source, so it is less certain.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Republican · declared
Adriel Lam is a retired U.S. Army service member who returned to Hawaii after nearly 24 years of military service.
Democratic · Incumbent · declared
Ed Case represents Hawaii's 1st Congressional District in the U.S. House and previously served in the Hawaii House of Representatives.
Green · declared
Jordan Conley is a personal trainer, coach, and teacher who co-founded the Hapa Mana nonprofit and serves on Aiea Neighborhood Board No. 20.
Nonpartisan · declared
Nathan Berning co-founded Let Them Live and serves as its chairman and chief executive officer; he also founded Right to Keep.
Sources: olvr.hawaii.gov · elections.hawaii.gov · fec.gov