United States Representative, Congressional District 9
Congressional District 9 (119th Congress), Arizona
My vote power
Below average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Normal · 59 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 863,227 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(7,378,838 ÷ 863,227) ÷ ln(50,000) = 59.92, measured against a statewide vote in AZ (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Low · rated not competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race not competitive. Rating from Inside Elections.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Republican" (d=5) → mean 5 → "not competitive" → grade low (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade normal, not competitive grades low)
Normal representation + low decisiveness → My vote power: Below average.
The current race rating comes from a single analyst source, so it is less certain.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Democratic · declared
Danielle Sterbinsky is a Democratic candidate in the August 4, 2026 primary for U.S. Representative for Arizona's 9th Congressional District.
Republican · Incumbent · declared
Paul Gosar is a Republican candidate in the August 4, 2026 primary for U.S. Representative for Arizona's 9th Congressional District.
Records: Environment and Public Health 4 for, 62 against, Immigration 31 against, Government Spending Reduction 9 for, 10 against,