United States Senator
Oregon
My vote power
Below average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Average · 50 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 4,254,293 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(4,254,293 ÷ 4,254,293) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50, measured against a statewide vote in OR (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Low · rated not competitive as of August 19, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race not competitive. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Democrat" (d=5) + Sabato "Safe Democratic" (d=5) → mean 5 → "not competitive" → grade low (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
Average representation + low decisiveness → My vote power: Below average.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Confirming federal judges and Supreme Court justices
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Republican · declared
David Brock Smith is a Republican member of the Oregon State Senate representing District 1 on the southern Oregon coast, and the 2026 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. He previously served in the Oregon House of Representatives.
Records: Environment and Public Health 7 for, 4 against, Immigration 1 for, 8 against, Civil Rights 1 for, 1 against,
Democratic · Incumbent · declared
Jeff Merkley is the Democratic incumbent U.S. Senator from Oregon, in office since 2009 and seeking a fourth term in 2026. He previously served as Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives.
Records: Environment and Public Health 32 for, Corporate Accountability 7 for, Social Programs and Welfare 6 for,
Source: en.wikipedia.org