Arlington County Parks and Recreation Bond Referendum
November 3, 2026 · Arlington County, Virginia · County
How do we calculate vote impact?
Vote impact = representation (how much weight one vote carries here, the smaller the district's population, the higher the representation) + decisiveness (how likely this race is to be close, based on past results and number of candidates).
Representation: Low · 25 out of 100
This district is large for its type, so each vote is a smaller slice of the outcome. About 236,254 people live here.
score = 100 × ln(largest population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(largest ÷ smallest), rounded to 2 decimals = 100 × ln(1,147,837 ÷ 236,254) ÷ ln(1,147,837 ÷ 2,296) = 25.44, comparing counties in VA (grades: 66+ high, 33+ average, otherwise low)
Ballot measure: +1 step
Your vote sets the policy directly, so the rating gets a one-step boost.
Low representation + a ballot-measure boost → Average vote impact.
Election sources
Source: arlingtonva.us