United States Representative, Congressional District 15
Congressional District 15 (119th Congress), Texas
My vote power
High
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: High · 66 out of 100
This district is a small slice of its state, so each vote here carries much more weight than a vote in a statewide race. About 790,465 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(30,188,424 ÷ 790,465) ÷ ln(50,000) = 66.83, measured against a statewide vote in TX (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Normal · rated competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race somewhat close. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Tilt Republican" (d=2) + Sabato "Leans Republican" (d=3) → mean 2.5 → "competitive" → grade normal (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade normal, not competitive grades low)
High representation + normal decisiveness → My vote power: High.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Democratic · declared
South Texas small-business owner, father of four, and award-winning Tejano artist. His campaign emphasizes practical solutions for South Texas communities.
Republican · Incumbent · declared
U.S. Representative serving South Texas. She emphasizes border security, agriculture, lower taxes, and domestic energy production.
Records: Social Programs and Welfare 8 for, Anti-Corruption 2 for, Labor Rights 2 against,