United States Representative, AK At-Large
Congressional District (at Large) (119th Congress), Alaska
My vote power
Normal
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Normal · 50 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 735,706 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(735,706 ÷ 735,706) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50, measured against a statewide vote in AK (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Normal · rated somewhat competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race somewhat close. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Likely Republican" (d=4) + Sabato "Likely Republican" (d=4) → mean 4 → "somewhat competitive" → grade normal (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade normal, not competitive grades low)
Normal representation + normal decisiveness → My vote power: Normal.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Nonpartisan · declared
A commercial fisherman and business owner with a background in education administration. His official candidate statement focuses on affordability, community schools, and government ethics.
Registered Democrat · declared
Hafner's official candidate statement lists studies in criminal justice and interdisciplinary studies, and describes advocacy work on drug-law reform and Indigenous rights.
Registered Republican · Incumbent · declared
A U.S. representative with business and investment experience, he holds an MBA from Indiana University. His official biography emphasizes business growth and the needs of Alaska families.