Representative to Congress, District 1
Congressional District 1 (119th Congress), New York
My vote power
Above average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Above average · 64 out of 100
This district is a good deal smaller than its state, so each vote here carries more weight than a vote in a statewide race. About 778,092 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(19,852,366 ÷ 778,092) ÷ ln(50,000) = 64.97, measured against a statewide vote in NY (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Average · rated somewhat competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race somewhat close. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Republican" (d=5) + Sabato "Likely Republican" (d=4) → mean 4.5 → "somewhat competitive" after consensus guardrails → grade average (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
Above average representation + average decisiveness → My vote power: Above average.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Democratic · declared
Military pilot, union leader, and volunteer firefighter focused on affordability, health care, and coastal resilience.
Republican · Incumbent · declared
U.S. Representative for New York's 1st Congressional District and former Suffolk County Board of Elections commissioner.
Records: Environment and Public Health 55 against, Immigration 21 against, Corporate Accountability 1 for, 7 against,
Sources: elections.ny.gov2