United States Representative, Congressional District 16
Congressional District 16 (119th Congress), Florida
My vote power
Normal
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Normal · 65 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 830,753 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(22,416,077 ÷ 830,753) ÷ ln(50,000) = 65.23, measured against a statewide vote in FL (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Normal · rated somewhat competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race somewhat close. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Republican" (d=5) + Sabato "Likely Republican" (d=4) → mean 4.5 → "somewhat competitive" after consensus guardrails → grade normal (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade normal, not competitive grades low)
Normal representation + normal decisiveness → My vote power: Normal.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Democratic · declared
Kelly Kirschner campaigns to lower costs, defend health care and bring opportunity home to the Gulf Coast. He argues Washington has been run like a private club for lobbyists and should work for the people who own it.
Records: Anti-Corruption 1 for
Republican · declared
Sydney Gruters describes herself as a dedicated civic leader, public servant and mother who says she understands what is at stake. She campaigns on defending the American way of life and the issues affecting everyday working Americans.