Governor and Lieutenant Governor
Arizona
My vote power
High
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Normal · 50 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 7,378,838 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(7,378,838 ÷ 7,378,838) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50, measured against a statewide vote in AZ (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: High · rated very competitive as of August 12, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race very close — a small number of votes could decide the winner. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Toss-up" (d=0) + Sabato "Leans Democratic" (d=3) → mean 1.5 → "very competitive" → grade high (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade normal, not competitive grades low)
Normal representation + high decisiveness → My vote power: High.
About this office
- Signing or vetoing bills that become state law
- Proposing the state budget for schools, roads, and health care
- Picking who leads state agencies
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Candidate information for this race isn't available yet.
Sources: azsos.gov · apps.azsos.gov