United States Representative, Congressional District 48
Congressional District 48 (119th Congress), California
My vote power
High
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: High · 68 out of 100
This district is a small slice of its state, so each vote here carries much more weight than a vote in a statewide race. About 760,621 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(39,287,377 ÷ 760,621) ÷ ln(50,000) = 68.23, measured against a statewide vote in CA (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Average · rated competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race somewhat close. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Tilt Democrat" (d=2) + Sabato "Leans Democratic" (d=3) → mean 2.5 → "competitive" → grade average (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
High representation + average decisiveness → My vote power: High.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Republican · declared
San Diego County Supervisor for District 5. A former San Marcos mayor and U.S. Navy veteran, he has focused on county budget oversight and homelessness.
Records: Healthcare Affordability 1 against, Social Programs and Welfare 1 for
Democratic · declared
San Diego City Councilmember for District 5 and chair of the Committee on Public Safety. A former prosecutor and workers' rights attorney, she has worked on public safety and consumer-protection measures.
Records: Environment and Public Health 1 for, Gun Control 1 for