United States Representative, Congressional District 2
Congressional District 2 (119th Congress), Arizona
My vote power
Above average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Above average · 60 out of 100
This district is a good deal smaller than its state, so each vote here carries more weight than a vote in a statewide race. About 826,257 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(7,378,838 ÷ 826,257) ÷ ln(50,000) = 60.12, measured against a statewide vote in AZ (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Average · rated somewhat competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race somewhat close. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Likely Republican" (d=4) + Sabato "Likely Republican" (d=4) → mean 4 → "somewhat competitive" → grade average (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
Above average representation + average decisiveness → My vote power: Above average.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Republican · Incumbent · declared
Eli Crane is the incumbent Republican U.S. Representative for Arizona Congressional District 2 and the Republican nominee in the November 3, 2026 general election.
Records: Environment and Public Health 3 for, 70 against, Immigration 26 against, Government Spending Reduction 3 for, 9 against,
Democratic · declared
Jonathan Nez is the Democratic nominee for U.S. House, Arizona Congressional District 2, in the November 3, 2026 general election.
Records: Environment and Public Health 2 for, Public Infrastructure 2 for, Social Programs and Welfare 1 for