United States Representative, District 2
Congressional District 2 (119th Congress), Idaho
My vote power
Below average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Normal · 53 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 947,982 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(1,934,262 ÷ 947,982) ÷ ln(50,000) = 53.3, measured against a statewide vote in ID (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Low · rated not competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race not competitive. Rating from Inside Elections.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Republican" (d=5) → mean 5 → "not competitive" → grade low (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade normal, not competitive grades low)
Normal representation + low decisiveness → My vote power: Below average.
The current race rating comes from a single analyst source, so it is less certain.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Democratic · declared
Ellie Gilbreath is the 2026 Democratic nominee for Idaho's 2nd Congressional District. A Ketchum resident, she holds a law degree from Georgetown University Law Center and owns a business and personal coaching practice.
Independent · declared
Emre Houser is an independent candidate for Idaho's 2nd Congressional District in 2026. He describes over 27 years of national service and more than 15 years as an Idaho business owner.
Republican · Incumbent · declared
Mike Simpson is the Republican U.S. Representative for Idaho's 2nd Congressional District, serving since 1999. A dentist by profession, he previously served in the Idaho House of Representatives, including as Speaker, before his election to Congress.
Records: Environment and Public Health 8 for, 67 against, Immigration 1 for, 29 against, Government Spending Reduction 7 for, 15 against,
Independent · declared
Tripp Hutchinson is an independent candidate for Idaho's 2nd Congressional District in 2026. He serves on the Ketchum City Council and campaigns on lowering the cost of living for working-class Idahoans and preserving rural Idaho.
Sources: en.wikipedia.org · sos.idaho.gov