United States Representative, Congressional District 7
Congressional District 7 (119th Congress), Michigan
My vote power
High
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Above average · 61 out of 100
This district is a good deal smaller than its state, so each vote here carries more weight than a vote in a statewide race. About 778,561 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(10,077,761 ÷ 778,561) ÷ ln(50,000) = 61.83, measured against a statewide vote in MI (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: High · rated toss-up as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race very close — a small number of votes could decide the winner. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Toss-up" (d=0) + Sabato "Toss-up" (d=0) → mean 0 → "toss-up" → grade high (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
Above average representation + high decisiveness → My vote power: High.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Republican · Incumbent · declared
Tom Barrett is the Republican incumbent U.S. Representative for Michigan's 7th Congressional District. His official House biography says he served 22 years in the U.S. Army, represented mid-Michigan in the Michigan House and Senate, and now serves in Congress.
Records: Social Programs and Welfare 2 for, National Defense 1 for, Peaceful Foreign Policy 1 for,
Democratic · declared
William Lawrence is a Democratic 2026 U.S. House candidate in Michigan's 7th Congressional District. His campaign site says he was raised in Lansing, graduated from East Lansing High School, is an accomplished community organizer, and has helped Mid-Michigan families avoid homelessness.
Records: Environment and Public Health 1 for, Social Programs and Welfare 1 for