United States Representative, Congressional District 5
Congressional District 5 (119th Congress), Virginia
My vote power
Normal
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Normal · 61 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 798,638 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(8,705,170 ÷ 798,638) ÷ ln(50,000) = 61.04, measured against a statewide vote in VA (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Normal · rated somewhat competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race somewhat close. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Republican" (d=5) + Sabato "Likely Republican" (d=4) → mean 4.5 → "somewhat competitive" after consensus guardrails → grade normal (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade normal, not competitive grades low)
Normal representation + normal decisiveness → My vote power: Normal.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Independent · declared
Republican · Incumbent · declared
U.S. Representative John McGuire is a former Navy SEAL, business owner, and Virginia legislator. His priorities include lower costs, national security, infrastructure, and agriculture.
Records: AI Regulation 1 for, Data Privacy 1 for, Labor Rights 1 against,
Democratic · declared
Tom Perriello is a former U.S. representative and U.S. diplomat. His campaign emphasizes lower costs, higher pay, and protecting democratic institutions.
Records: Social Programs and Welfare 1 for