State Senator - District No. 16
July 21, 2026 · State Senate District 16; Arizona · State senate district · primary
How do we calculate vote impact?
Vote impact = representation (how much weight one vote carries here, the smaller the district's population, the higher the representation) + decisiveness (how likely this race is to be close, based on past results and number of candidates).
Representation: Low · 24 out of 100
This district is large for its type, so each vote is a smaller slice of the outcome. About 261,084 people live here.
score = 100 × ln(largest population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(largest ÷ smallest), rounded to 2 decimals = 100 × ln(275,769 ÷ 261,084) ÷ ln(275,769 ÷ 221,081) = 24.76, comparing state senate districts in AZ (grades: 66+ high, 33+ average, otherwise low)
Decisiveness: Unknown
No past results for this contest yet.
Low representation + unknown decisiveness → Below average vote impact.
Some data is missing, so this rating is based on partial information and capped at "High".
State Senator is responsible for:
- Voting on state laws and the state budget
- Representing their district in the state senate
- Confirming certain governor appointments in many states
- Helping district residents deal with state agencies
Affected Areas: Environment and Public Health, Reduce Wealth Gap, Anti-Corruption, Government Efficiency, Healthcare Affordability, Government Spending Reduction, Public Safety and Crime Control, Housing Affordability, Social Programs and Welfare, Public Education Quality, Gun Control, Women's Reproductive Rights, Election Integrity, Personal Income Tax Reduction, Data Privacy, Civil Rights, Corporate Accountability, Public Infrastructure
Candidates
Elaine Aldrete
Democrat · declared
Elaine Aldrete is a Tucson-area nonprofit founder, former corporate staffing manager, author, and community volunteer. She founded Teaching Life Choices, serves on the elected Drexel Heights Fire District Governing Board, and has held volunteer leadership and campaign-finance roles in Arizona Democratic organizations and campaigns.
Records: Public Education Quality 1 for
Thomas "T.J." Shope
Republican · Incumbent · declared
T.J. Shope is an Arizona state senator, small-business owner, and banking professional from Coolidge. He previously served on the Coolidge Unified School District Governing Board and in the Arizona House, including as House speaker pro tempore, before taking office in the Senate in 2021. He serves as Senate president pro tempore.
Records: Anti-Corruption 1 for, Civil Rights 1 for, Corporate Accountability 1 for, Election Integrity 1 for, Environment and Public Health 1 for, Healthcare Affordability 1 for, Housing Affordability 1 for, Public Education Quality 1 for, Public Safety and Crime Control 2 for, Reduce Wealth Gap 2 for, Women's Reproductive Rights 1 for
Election sources
Source: azsos.gov
Source: azsos.gov