United States Representative, Congressional District 1
Congressional District 1 (119th Congress), Arizona
My vote power
High
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Normal · 60 out of 100
This district covers a large share of its state, so each vote carries about average weight — like a vote in a statewide race. About 804,578 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(7,378,838 ÷ 804,578) ÷ ln(50,000) = 60.24, measured against a statewide vote in AZ (grades: 66+ high, 33+ normal, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: High · rated toss-up as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race very close — a small number of votes could decide the winner. Rating from Inside Elections and University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Toss-up" (d=0) + Sabato "Toss-up" (d=0) → mean 0 → "toss-up" → grade high (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade normal, not competitive grades low)
Normal representation + high decisiveness → My vote power: High.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Democratic · declared
Amish Shah is an emergency-medicine physician who served in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2019 until 2024. He was elected to the chamber three times.
Records: Civil Rights 3 for, Healthcare Affordability 2 for, Social Programs and Welfare 2 for,
Republican · declared
Thomas “Jay” Feely is a former professional football placekicker and sports broadcaster. His campaign biography describes this as his first run for public office.
Libertarian · declared
Monica Alponte is a retired business owner, writer, and former political television talk-show co-host. Her campaign says she has worked in homeowner advocacy, road safety, and animal rescue in Arizona.