County Supervisor 4th District
November 3, 2026 · Orange County, California · County · general
How do we calculate vote impact?
Vote impact = representation (how much weight one vote carries here, the smaller the district's population, the higher the representation) + decisiveness (how likely this race is to be close, based on past results and number of candidates).
Representation: Low · 12 out of 100
This district is large for its type, so each vote is a smaller slice of the outcome. About 3,165,820 people live here.
score = 100 × ln(largest population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(largest ÷ smallest), rounded to 2 decimals = 100 × ln(9,808,667 ÷ 3,165,820) ÷ ln(9,808,667 ÷ 1,616) = 12.98, comparing counties in CA (grades: 66+ high, 33+ average, otherwise low)
Decisiveness: Unknown
No past results for this contest yet.
Low representation + unknown decisiveness → Below average vote impact.
Some data is missing, so this rating is based on partial information and capped at "High".
County Supervisor is responsible for:
- Serving on the county's governing board
- Passing the county budget and local rules
- Overseeing county services such as roads, health programs, and elections
- Deciding land use in areas outside city limits
Affected Areas: Environment and Public Health, Government Efficiency, Healthcare Affordability, Government Spending Reduction, Public Safety and Crime Control, Housing Affordability, Social Programs and Welfare, Public Infrastructure
Candidates
Connor Traut
Nonpartisan · declared
Connor Traut is the mayor of Buena Park and a nonpartisan candidate for Orange County Supervisor, 4th District, in the November 3, 2026 general election. He previously served on the Centralia Elementary School District board and currently represents Buena Park on the Orange County Fire Authority board.
Records: Government Efficiency 1 for, Housing Affordability 1 for, Public Infrastructure 1 for, Public Safety and Crime Control 2 for
Tim Shaw
Nonpartisan · declared
Tim Shaw is the District 4 trustee on the Orange County Board of Education and a nonpartisan candidate for Orange County Supervisor, 4th District, in the November 3, 2026 general election. He previously served on the La Habra City Council, including terms as mayor, and served on the Orange County Transportation Authority and Orange County Sanitation District boards.
Records: Environment and Public Health 2 against, Government Efficiency 1 for, 2 against, Government Spending Reduction 1 for, Public Infrastructure 2 for
Election sources
Source: ocvote.gov
Source: ocvote.gov
Source: ocvote.gov