United States Representative, Congressional District 5
Congressional District 5 (119th Congress), Kentucky
My vote power
Average
Election date
November 3, 2026 · General election
How do we calculate my vote power?
What goes into the rating: Representation: how much weight one vote carries here compared with a statewide vote — the smaller the district, the more each vote counts. Decisiveness: how likely this race is to be close, based on past results or current analyst ratings, plus the number of candidates.
Representation: Above average · 58 out of 100
This district is a good deal smaller than its state, so each vote here carries more weight than a vote in a statewide race. About 742,663 people live here.
Show the representation math
score = 50 + 50 × ln(state population ÷ this district's) ÷ ln(50,000) = 50 + 50 × ln(4,534,824 ÷ 742,663) ÷ ln(50,000) = 58.36, measured against a statewide vote in KY (grades: 66+ high, 55+ above average, 33+ average, otherwise low; a statewide race is the 50 baseline)
Decisiveness: Low · rated not competitive as of August 20, 2026
Election analysts currently rate this race not competitive. Rating from Inside Elections.
Show the decisiveness math
IE "Solid Republican" (d=5) → mean 5 → "not competitive" → grade low (d: toss-up 0, tilt 2, lean(s) 3, likely 4, solid/safe 5; mean, first match: <1 toss-up, <2.5 very competitive, <3.5 competitive, <4.5 somewhat competitive, otherwise not competitive; toss-up and very competitive grade high, competitive and somewhat competitive grade average, not competitive grades low)
Above average representation + low decisiveness → My vote power: Average.
The current race rating comes from a single analyst source, so it is less certain.
About this office
- Voting on how much you pay in federal income tax
- Voting on Social Security, Medicare, and other federal programs
- Voting on federal spending for roads, defense, and health care
Affects: AI Regulation, Healthcare Affordability, Environment and Public Health,
Candidates
Write-In · declared
Billy Ray Wilson is a retired U.S. Air Force disabled veteran and former federal employee. His public materials describe long-term federal service and advocacy on constitutional and civic issues.
Independent · declared
Gerardo Serrano is an Independent congressional candidate who has previously sought federal office in Kentucky. Public candidate materials list South Suburban College among his education.
Records: Civil Rights 1 for
Republican · Incumbent · declared
Hal Rogers represents Kentucky's 5th Congressional District in the U.S. House. His official biography notes prior service as a Kentucky commonwealth attorney and chair of the House Appropriations Committee.
Records: Environment and Public Health 57 against, Immigration 24 against, Civil Rights 3 for, 13 against,
Independent · declared
Mikel Wein is an archaeologist whose research focuses on ancient Mediterranean settlement and exchange networks. His campaign emphasizes independent representation and constitutional accountability.
Democratic · declared
Ned Pillersdorf is an Eastern Kentucky attorney and Democratic congressional candidate. His campaign highlights decades of legal practice and advocacy for vulnerable residents.